
I know it's a bit late to be issuing a final forecast (now that most places already are at least several inches or more into the event), but I've been far too busy to until now.
Now, the past several model runs have printed out the liquid equivalent of well over 10" of snow; however, I'd been very cautious of these amounts even up until this afternoon, because I believed that several hours of heavy snow would fall, but not stick due to plenty of good reasons: it's late March and the sun angle is high(er) and it was in the 60s yesterday so ground temperatures are warm. Also, it made it well into the 40s most places today. Thus, I believed that we would "loose" several inches or more of snow due to it not sticking at the outset; I didn't believe that snow would stick (even to grassy locations) until after dark.
Boy, was I wrong! The snow came on so heavily that it counteracted all of the above possible detriments to it sticking, and started piling up at a ferocious rate by late afternoon. Thus, I now believe that the forecast models suggesting 10-20" may be on to something, though I think totals at the upper end of that range will be isolated.
I have therefore adjusted my forecast up significantly. I now believe
9 to 18 INCHES
Is probable for the Denver metro area. My gut feeling says that the places that received the lowest snowfall accumulations with the last storm (downtown Denver and points south and east), may actually be the ones picking up the most this time around. I'd rate my confidence level on this storm as 6 or 7 on a 1-10 scale.
Note that due to the high water content in with this storm, and the heaviness of the snow, scattered power outages are certainly a possibility. Also, I believe that 2/3 to 3/4 of the entire event's snow will have fallen by sunrise tomorrow, with much lighter snow during the day Wednesday. It wouldn't surprise me if by noon the snow has stopped in many locations.
Be safe out there, and avoid being on the roads at all cost. I traveled from Denver to Boulder from 5:30 to 7:15pm tonight, and saw numerous stranded cars and accidents (3 of the latter in less than a 1/16 mile stretch in between McCaslin Blvd & Table Mesa!) and only one snow plow.
P.S. I hesitate to narrow the range to something this small, since spring snowstorms in CO are so unpredictable, but if I were a betting man, I'd guess that most totals in the area will range from the 10-14" zone.
*Note: image above courtesy Accuweather.com