AM Update: Widespread 10-20" SNOWFALL

8:15am Thursday 2/2/12

Model data that has come in overnight does nothing to lessen confidence that this will be an extremely high impact, if not record-breaking, February snowfall. Crunching the most recent model data and bifurcating into a 4" forecast spread produces the following results:

• DENVER: 15-19"
• BROOMFIELD: 13-17"
• FORT COLLINS: 9-13"
  

Showers of rain or wet snow will develop by late afternoon across much of the Denver metro area, with a rapid transition to all snow as temperatures drop below freezing. Snow will then continue, moderate to heavy in nature, all night Thursday and much of the day Friday, perhaps even lingering into the early morning hours on Saturday.

The bulk of the snow will probably fall during an 18-hour window from midnight Thursday through 6pm on Friday. During this time snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour are likely.

Note: the largest February snow event on record for Denver was a 14.1" storm during February of 1912. I think we have a 50/50 shot of breaking this record...

**BREAKING:** Upping Snowfall Totals forEntire Denver Metro area to 10-15"+

Updated: 9:40pm 2/1/12

Newest guidance suggests that the track of this upcoming storm, which had been somewhat uncertain earlier today, is going to move on a path that is nearly perfect for a disruptive and dangerous snowfall to plaster the entire Denver metro area.

I am, therefore, upping forecast totals for the duration of the storm event (late Thursday into early Saturday) to

10-15" ACROSS THE ENTIRE DENVER METRO AREA, WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 2 FEET...

Heaviest snowfall totals will be from downtown Denver and points east and northeast. As you head northwest away from Denver, snowfall totals will decrease somewhat. Fort Collins looks to receive more like 8-12" from this storm.

More updates to follow...

Significant Snowfall Likely Across Denver MetroMost Places Can Expect to See a Healthy 6-12"

There's been a lot of consternation from other forecast outlets about computer modeling making it difficult to pin down a forecast for this storm. I beg to differ. If you follow the trends, weighting the models that have been most consistent as well as the ones that are the best "initialized" -- i.e., what the model forecasts at Hour ZERO is as close to reality as observations suggest -- then it's relatively easy to come up with a forecast of decent confidence:

THE STRONGEST EVIDENCE NOW POINTS TO WIDESPREAD 6-12" OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE DENVER METRO AREA...

...with the highest totals to the east and northeast of downtown Denver. As you head northwest from Denver, totals will drop off somewhat. (Places like Fort Collins are likely to pick up more like 4-8".)

I'll have detailed forecast information, time line, Q&A, etc. in upcoming posts.

Significant Snowfall Thursday into Friday?

Newest model guidance is lending confidence to the fact that we'll see at least some snow late Thursday into Friday of this week, and is suggesting the potential for significant accumulations, especially in Denver and points south and east.

I now believe at least a few inches of accumulation are probable, with the potential of 6" or more certainly not out of the question.

Updates to follow...

Late Week Snow?

An early heads-up that several computer models are hinting at the possibility of an accumulating snowfall for central Colorado during the late Thursday through early Saturday time period late this week.

It's far too early to know with any confidence if it snows, whether it might be heavy or not, where highest amounts will be, and even if it will be an entirely-snow event. Temperatures may be marginal at the outset.

However, I have reason to believe that at least a few inches of snow are possible by this time Friday.

Stay tuned...

>4" More Snow Will Fall from 2 Events: Friday night/Sat & Sunday night/Mon

With cold air firmly entrenched over the entire region, two separate disturbances will push through the area over the next 3-4 days, providing two chances for light accumulations of snowfall.

The first event will take place from late Friday night into mid-day Saturday, with the likelihood for 1-3" of snow.

The second disturbance will probably bring 2-4" of snow late Sunday into mid-day Monday. Because of the bitterly cold temperatures associated with, particularly this second event, the atmosphere will be efficient at wringing a decent amount of snow out of only a little moisture.

Between these two events, I think most places stand a good chance of seeing more than 4" combined...

How Much Snow Do You Think Will Fall Thursday?

Just for fun, let me know how much snow will fall on Thursday in Denver?

Click here to take this survey