Next 10 Days: Warmer & Drier than Normal ...But What About the Fall, Winter???

It appears that weather over the next 10 days will rather closely mirror that of the past 10 days. That means that we're likely to see above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the start of October.

Though the first half of September was cooler than normal in central Colorado, the atmospheric pattern switched mid-month and we've seen above normal temperatures since then.

In fact, the coolest official overnight low recorded in Boulder so far this month is 45 degrees. To put that in perspective, 14 out of 15 of the past Septembers have seen lows below 40 (in the 30s).

(Pictured above: NOAA's 6-10 day temperature guidance; not the high probability of warmer than normal temperatures for our area.)

So what does the first part of October have in store for us?

• A preponderance of the next 10 days will feature at least partly sunny skies
• Most days will be precipitation-free
• Afternoon highs will generally range from 70-80
• Overnight lows will generally range from the low 40s to the low 50s.
  

After about the end of the first week of October, it would appear that near- to below-normal temperatures along with near- to above-normal precipitation is possible; this is a somewhat low confidence forecast, however.

What do long-term models suggest for the rest of the fall?

• A somewhat elevated chance of below normal temperatures
• A somewhat elevated chance of above normal precipitation

And the winter ahead? It's a about a month too early to make a first call (with any sort of confidence) for what the winter might be like in central Colorado, but there are some very early indications that snow-lovers might be somewhat disappointed. From this far vantage point, it would appear that odds may slightly favor a warmer than normal and drier than normal winter.

I'll keep you posted....