Snow Chances Diminishing?

Well, if you believe the runs of the computer models today, the potential for (heavy) snow -- or really, any snow for that matter -- for Colorado seems to have diminished considerably.

Yesterday, most of the forecast models developed an area of low pressure that moved either directly over Colorado even slightly to our south. That scenario would allow for plenty of cold air to be drawn into Colorado and the main shield of precipitation would be over our neck of the woods. However, the models today have tended to develop an area of low pressure that moves to our north and west, which would mean much less cold air to play with and the majority of the precipitation to our north and west in Wyoming, Montana and Idaho.

However, 3-4 days is still plenty of time for the models to shift to another scenario (such as one that would be conducive to cold and snow for central CO), so we're not entirely out of the woods yet. While I'm highly simplifying this for the sake of demonstration, models have been known to choose a scenario "x" one day; then change to a scenario "y" the next day, only to change back to scenario "x" again the next day. That is because the models are predicting the strength, position, and movement of an atmospheric feature that hasn't even developed yet!

Bottom line: I'm much less bullish about the potential for snow this weekend than I was yesterday but it's still in the realm of possibility.