If we don't receive measurable snowfall in Boulder/Denver on or before November 15, we'll have the latest first snowfall ever in the area since records began in 1948. (Note there have been a couple of near misses so far this fall, with places like Nederland and Gun Barrel having seen snow already.) The chance we'll see snowfall by or before November 15? I'd put it at a dismal 10%, so it's highly likely that this year we'll see the latest first snowfall in region in 50 years.It has been a notably warmer and drier fall as well. October averaged +2.4 degrees warmer than average and brought us less than a third of our normal precipitation. With more than a third of November having passed, we're averaging nearly +6 degrees above average so far this month and we've only seen 0.04" of (liquid) precipitation.
With a sprawling ridge of high pressure parked over the western half of the country, it's likely that this warm/dry pattern will continue for at least the next 10 days. (The image above shows CPC's 8-14 temperature forecast; note the high probability of warmer than normal conditions for the western US.) Thereafter, there's some potential for appropriately cold weather, but certainly no guarantee.
Unfortunately, I have reason to believe that this abnormally warm, dry start to the winter season is a sign of things to come: most computer modeling suggests that the real core of the cold(er than normal air mass) this winter will be over the eastern third of the nation.
Snow freaks: prepare yourself for disappointment this season -- especially compared to last year's blockbuster snowfall in the high country.t
2 comments:
Josh,
you were dead on man. This winter has sucked big time. We own a soup restaurant in Evergreen, and in the 35 years I've lived here, I've never seen a winter like this. So dry, so warm. Prey tell, will we have a fiery summer? I'm scared we'll burn to a crisp...
"Anonymous,"
Thanks for your comments. My early winter outlook seem(ed) to be spot on. As the winter went on I thought we'd catch a break, but we still haven't yet. If things don't change DRASTICALLY, this winter will go down as much warmer than normal, but more depressingly, perhaps the least snowy winter in over a century (east of the Rockies/Foothills).
There are some early indications that a colder and potentially snowy pattern may develop after March 23, but I'll hold my breath.
If we don't see more than at LEAST a few more inches of snow this month, it will surely go down as the least snowy March since records have been kept :(
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