For Now, Mild Weather to Continue... But Turning Colder by Sunday

The brief shot of cold air and 1.9" of snow that fell Monday night not withstanding, we've generally seen warmer than normal temperatures -- by a few degrees -- over the past week, even though the month as a whole has given us temperatures 1.2 degrees below average.

This mild weather is likely to hold for several more days, most obvious this coming Saturday when high temperatures may hit 65 degrees! But a strong cold front will push through late Saturday into Sunday, dropping temperatures some 20 degrees -- back to below normal levels, along with a chance for a little snow on Sunday.

The rather benign, detailed forecast looks likes this:

Wednesday 2/27:
Mostly sunny and breezy (west winds 15-30mph) with highs near 53.
Partly cloudy overnight with lows near 30.

Thursday 2/28:
Mostly sunny and milder with highs near 58.
Mostly clear overnight with lows again near 30.

Friday 2/29:
Mostly sunny and mild with highs near 56.
Partly cloudy and not as cool with lows near 34.

Saturday 3/1:
Mostly sunny and very mild with highs near 65.
Mostly cloudy and breezy with lows near 32.

Sunday 3/2:
Mostly cloudy & much colder with some light snow possible; highs near 40.
Partly cloudy with scattered snow showers and lows near 22.

To put this in perspective, the average hi/low for this time of year is near 52/25.

Don't Be Fooled By the Hype... 2-4" of Snow -- *NOT* 4-8" -- Likely

This is going to be a short post due to time constraints, but I'd like to point out that I am in fairly significant disagreement with the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for 4-8" of snow for Boulder. I think we'll see on the order of about half that amount.

We'll definitely get snow from this area of low pressure associated with a strong cold front -- Wednesday's high was 65; Thursday's high will be some 40 degrees lower -- but, much like many of the past storm systems, it looks a bit moisture starved to me.

As I write this at 12:30am, some scattered flurries are starting to fall in the greater Boulder area, which is on target. But I don't think we'll see much more than light to moderate snow during the overnight hours. I expect 1-2" to fall overnight tonight, while the NWS is calling for 2-4".

Another 1-2" of snow may fall during the day Thursday, along with plenty cold temperatures, but an increasingly higher sun angle at this time of year is likely to limit accumulations on paved surfaces, despite air temperatures in the mid 20s.

TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATION:
TWO to FOUR INCHES*

*Favored, higher elevation, (ski) areas to our west may pick up 6-10" in some spots.

Snowy Day on Tap!

An upper-level trough over Utah will move south and east into Colorado during the day today. This will provide us with periods of light to moderate snow along with cold high temperatures below freezing. The heaviest snow looks like it will fall from mid-afternoon through early evening, with snowfall rates of >1"/hr possible during this time. Snowfall should taper off by the early morning hours on Tuesday.

Pictured: an upper-level trough will push through Colorado today, bringing periods of moderate snow.

Detailed Forecast

Monday 2/4:

• Overcast skies with periods of light to moderate snow during the first half of the day
• High temperatures will top out in the upper 20s
• Moderate, to perhaps heavy, periods of snow can be expected during the second half of the day
• 1-3" of accumulation expected by early evening
  

Monday night 2/4:

• Overcast skies with periods of moderate (possibly briefly heavy) snow through midnight.
• Scattered snow showers thereafter, tapering off by early morning Tuesday.
• Nighttime temperatures will drop off rather noticeably into the mid teens.
• 1-2" of additional accumulation by Tuesday AM

TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATION
TWO to FIVE INCHES

Super Tuesday 2/5:

• Benign weather on tap following today's snow.
• No excuse not to go out and caucus!
  
• We'll see mostly sunny skies & highs in the low 30s.