Nuisance, Conversation Snow to Fall May 1

Yes, we will see snow on Thursday, May 1 in Boulder/Denver. No, I don't think it will stick -- despite the fact that Accuweather is currently calling for 1-3".

I'll have a full update later tonight or early tomorrow.

(It's possible these will not be the last flakes we'll see this spring: on average, 1.6" of snow fall in Boulder in May, and it has snowed as late as June 7.)

April Snowstorm to Bring 2-5" of Snow to Area Unlikely to stick to paved surfaces

I'm sticking with yesterday's call for 2-5" of snow for the Boulder/Denver area. When I made that prediction, the National Weather Service was calling for 4-8"; as of this afternoon, they've lowered their prediction to 3-6." Even still, I believe that accumulations will most likely end up on the lower end of my range (i.e., 2-3") than the upper end of my range (i.e., 4-5"). In addition, except for decreased visibilities, there should be little or no travel disruptions since temperatures on Thursday will climb into the mid 30s coupled with a high April sun angle. I do not expect any of the snow that falls to stick on paved surfaces at elevations under 7000ft; for reference, Boulder/Denver are around 5500ft.

So here's the detailed forecast:

Tonight 4/9:

• Scattered showers, even a rumble of thunder in the evening; temperatures hold in the 40s.
• By late evening, temperatures will drop into the 30s and some snow will mix with the rain.
  
• After midnight, temperatures will fall to near freezing and precipitation should be all snow.
• Light to moderate snow will fall during much of the early morning hours.
• Expect to wake up to 1-3" of wet snow, mainly on grass surfaces Thursday AM.

Thursday 4/10:

• The morning will feature periods of light to moderate snow; temperatures in the low 30s.
• Temperatures will climb to the mid 30s by early afternoon with snow tapering somewhat.
  
• A few scattered snow showers may linger into the early evening hours.
• Expect 1-2" of additional accumulation on Thursday.

TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATION
TWO to FIVE INCHES*

*Ski areas to the west will generally see 6-12" of snow, with some isolated locations seeing closer to 15".

As a bonus, check out my journalism major friend -- Jimmy Himes' -- video report based off my forecast.

Once Again, Don't Believe the Hype! I think 2-5" (at most) likely; not 4-8"

I'm sorry (to the small minority of Coloradans, like me, who want to see a big snow in April) to say that I'm once again going to disagree with the official local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for the upcoming winter storm. At press time, they have issued a Winter Storm Watch and are predicting 4-8" of snow for the Boulder/Denver area.

For the reasons listed below, my preliminary forecast is for 2-5" in the greater Boulder/Denver area -- close to half of what the National Weather Service (NWS) is currently predicting for the area.

Why am I expecting so much less snow? We are now almost into the middle of April and the sun angle right now is very different than it was two months ago.

What does that mean? A significantly higher amount of incoming solar radiation at this time of the calender year will make it quite difficult for snow, even during heavy snowfall, to stick to non-grassy surfaces in areas below 7,000ft+ (i.e., Boulder & Denver) and much melting will occur when flakes do fall. Add to that the potential for rain to mix in with the snow, especially during daylight hours, and I don't see the potential for a lot of snow.

That being said, ski areas to the west of Boulder/Denver -- i.e., from western Boulder County (i.e., Ward, CO and further west) stand the chance for 7-14" of fresh snow, or even more in some isolated locations; I would not be shocked if Vail or Keystone pick up close to 2 feet of new snow!

This is just a preliminary forecast, and I will provide a full update and detailed accumulation forecast and timeline later in the day on Wednesday.

However, my forecast at the moment is for:

2-5" TOTAL ACCUMULATION*
in the Boulder/Denver area (<6,000ft)

*Most of which will not stick to paved surfaces.

Thanks for stopping by!

You can anticipate an updated forecast/blog post by mid-evening Wednesday 4/9/08.