Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Significant Snowfall Likely Across Denver Metro
Most Places Can Expect to See a Healthy 6-12"

There's been a lot of consternation from other forecast outlets about computer modeling making it difficult to pin down a forecast for this storm. I beg to differ. If you follow the trends, weighting the models that have been most consistent as well as the ones that are the best "initialized" -- i.e., what the model forecasts at Hour ZERO is as close to reality as observations suggest -- then it's relatively easy to come up with a forecast of decent confidence:

THE STRONGEST EVIDENCE NOW POINTS TO WIDESPREAD 6-12" OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE DENVER METRO AREA...

...with the highest totals to the east and northeast of downtown Denver. As you head northwest from Denver, totals will drop off somewhat. (Places like Fort Collins are likely to pick up more like 4-8".)

I'll have detailed forecast information, time line, Q&A, etc. in upcoming posts.

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